Our current security situation
Within a short span of time, the world has become more dangerous and unpredictable. There is war in Europe, increasing rivalry between the major powers and significant tensions in transatlantic relations. Norway is contending with the most serious security situation it has faced since the Second World War.
War in Europe
Russia’s war against Ukraine poses a direct threat to peace and security across the European continent. As Russia’s neighbour, Norway has to deal with an aggressive, unpredictable Russia that is challenging Norwegian interests.
Ukraine’s fight to defend itself is a fight for the future of Europe. Russia is seeking to establish an alternative security architecture in Europe that will leave it free to dominate neighbouring countries at will. This is a long-term, strategic objective that Russia is pursuing, vis-à-vis Ukraine and other countries as well. Russia is employing a range of methods including cyberattacks and threats to use nuclear weapons, as well as sabotage, disinformation and other covert activities. This affects Norway too.
Russia is receiving military support from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Iran. DPRK troops have been deployed to fight in Ukraine. China has provided political support to Russia, as well as an extensive supply of materiel and technology. This has strengthened Russia’s military capability and helped to keep the war going.
Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and has a large population, abundant natural resources and substantial industrial capacity. A Ukraine that is under Russian control would undermine stability throughout Europe. Ukraine will be dependent on foreign assistance for many years to come to support the reconstruction efforts and ensure adequate military deterrence in the future.
Increasingly blurred distinction between war and peace
Russia uses a wide range of tools in its attempts to exploit vulnerabilities in Europe and to achieve its strategic objectives. The distinction between war and peace is becoming increasingly blurred.
Norway is not shielded from these developments. We and other countries are subject to activities that pose a threat to our security, primarily from Russia, but also from China. There is considerable intelligence activity. We are a target for hostile influence operations. The threat of sabotage is a serious concern. There has been a marked increase in economic activities that pose a threat to national security. Migration is being deliberately used by state actors as a means of exerting pressure on many European countries. We must be prepared for a situation where hostile activities could increase in scale and become more aggressive. This is a development that affects every part of society.
Another worrying development is that state actors are financing radicalised groups and criminal networks and using them to carry out acts on their behalf. They commit serious acts of violence and spread disinformation to sow division and fear.
A major shift in transatlantic relations
Relations between the US and Europe have changed. New US priorities have far-reaching implications for international relations and our societies. Unconventional and confrontational policies, including major changes in trade policy, have generated considerable uncertainty in transatlantic relations.
For nearly eight decades, the US has been the main contributor to NATO. US political and military strength is vital to Allied deterrence and the defence of Norway and the rest of Europe. US engagement and direct investment in European security and stability are now changing. The US has for some time made it clear that its resources are stretched and that it expects more from its European allies. Europe must shoulder a greater share of the cost of ensuring security and stability on its own continent. A continued extensive US military presence in Europe is not a given.
Increasing rivalry between major powers
The global balance of power is changing. Competition between the major powers is growing.
China is challenging international rules and values that are essential to maintaining Norwegian security, economic growth and prosperity. China’s significant military build-up and use of coercive measures are creating uncertainty and changing the military balance of power, at both the regional and the global level. At the same time, because of its size, power, and economic weight, it will not be possible to solve many of the key challenges of our time without cooperating with China.
The US is turning its attention towards the Pacific region. This reinforces the need for European Allies to shoulder greater responsibility for security on their own continent. It also means that Norwegian security will to a greater extent be affected by developments in Asia, and that NATO’s partners in the region will become more important for Norway.
After three decades of globalisation, multilateral cooperation is under pressure. Power politics is on the rise. As a result, greater weight is being placed on security considerations in the areas of trade, investment and technological cooperation. Control of value chains and critical input factors has become more important – both for states and for commercial enterprises.
Tougher technological competition
The growing rivalry between the major powers is reflected in an intensifying race to develop technology, with far-reaching implications for Norwegian security. New and disruptive technologies expand the potential for the use of force, intelligence, disinformation and cyberattacks, by both state and non-state actors.
This development creates new vulnerabilities and increases the importance of understanding and applying new technology effectively, not least artificial intelligence, which is revolutionising how information is compiled, how decisions are taken and how tasks are carried out. Technological advances are opening up a wide range of opportunities, but are also creating challenges, for example relating to responsibility and control in autonomous systems.
The US and China are leading the technological race. Both countries are seeking to maximise and protect their comparative advantages. The contours of two technological ecosystems are emerging, separate from and competing with one another. The EU is trying to strengthen its position by pursuing a more ambitious economic policy. For Norway, these developments mean that there will be difficult decisions to make about which technologies to prioritise and which to restrict, particularly technologies coming from countries with which Norway has no established security cooperation.
The expansion of algorithm-driven media platforms has led to increased polarisation, more frequent hostile influence activities and the spread of disinformation. This has given rise to echo chambers and parallel versions of reality in many countries. This development threatens to undermine public debate and trust in society.
Major security challenges in Europe
The war in Ukraine and the rise in geopolitical tensions are a serious wake-up call for Europe. The war has revealed significant vulnerabilities and deficiencies in European defence capabilities and production capacity. Europe’s dependence on Russian gas was a serious vulnerability. The decrease in European imports of Russian gas has had a significant impact on European economy and industry. Many European countries are experiencing weak economic growth and high debt levels. A global trade war will have major ramifications for Europe.
The EU has strengthened its role in international security in recent years. The EU has imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russia and provided substantial military and civilian assistance to Ukraine. This has helped to isolate Russia and support Ukraine in its fight to defend itself. At the same time, European cooperation has continued to develop, with new forms of collaboration and broader integration in several areas. The EU has introduced a number of important initiatives to strengthen its overall defence capability, resilience and competitiveness.
The EU is pursuing a more active industrial and business policy that will have an impact on Norway. Policy development is increasingly cross-sectoral, with initiatives that fall wholly or partially outside the scope of the EEA Agreement. Norway’s close ties to the EU through the EEA Agreement place us in a good position to participate in important cooperation initiatives, but there are no guarantees. To promote Norwegian participation in European initiatives, we will need to set clear priorities, intensify our political efforts and take a proactive approach to cooperation with the EU.
A new situation in the High North
Norway’s relations with Russia in the High North have traditionally been stable. Now, however, our neighbour to the east has become more dangerous. The more antagonistic relations between NATO and Russia heighten the risk of undesirable incidents and confrontation. Allied interest in the region is increasing.
At the global level, the trend is towards rearmament, weaker arms control and a lower threshold for threatening to use nuclear force. Nuclear weapons are once again gaining a more prominent role in security policy. The world’s largest concentration of nuclear weapons, extensive weapons testing facilities and other Russian military capabilities are situated near our border.
Growing geopolitical competition is amplifying the strategic importance of the Arctic. The impacts of climate change also affect national security and preparedness efforts in the Arctic, and are opening up new opportunities for activity and use of resources.
Northern European defence and security cooperation is becoming increasingly defined, operational and binding. Closer cooperation enhances the region’s political influence and room for manoeuvre.
The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO is a fundamental change that benefits Norway. The Nordic Allies can now work more closely together on plans, solutions and operations, and NATO can present a united front vis-à-vis Russia in the High North. Norway will have a more important role to play in terms of facilitating transit of Allied forces in the Nordic and Baltic Sea regions. This places new demands on us while offering new opportunities relating to mobility, joint infrastructure and logistics.
The partnership between Russia and China could lead to increased competition and rivalry in the High North. In today’s uncertain security landscape, where interest in the Arctic is growing, it will be even more crucial for Norway to be able to understand, influence and shape developments in the north. Demographic changes and economic challenges in eastern Finnmark are a particular cause for concern.
Binding international cooperation is being undermined
The growing tendency towards national assertiveness and power politics is undermining the UN’s standing and making it more difficult to find political solutions to global challenges. The UN’s ability to prevent and resolve conflicts has been diminished. Progress in international arms control has suffered significant setbacks. International law and established norms are being challenged, with serious violations in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and elsewhere.
These negative developments are making the world a more dangerous place. We are seeing an increase in the use of force, diminished respect for human rights and fewer constraints on the arms race and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Democracy is backsliding across the world. More and more people live in countries with authoritarian forms of government. Even in many democratic countries, free elections, freedom of expression and the independence of the judiciary are under threat.
At the same time, the world is facing global challenges that can only be addressed through broad-based international cooperation, not least those relating to climate change and the environment, health, and regulation of artificial intelligence and advanced biotechnology. The world is a long way from achieving the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The risk of new deadly pandemics remains high, and international cooperation on health and pandemic preparedness is inadequate. Unresolved global challenges such as these pose a direct threat to the health and safety of people in Norway, and also have a direct impact on other Norwegian interests.
