2 The threat landscape

2.1 Complex threats

While political propaganda, fake news, and disinformation are by no means modern phenomena, new technology has provided even greater opportunities to influence individuals and larger segments of the population. The opportunities to influence an entire society by influencing individual citizens have grown. Such operations threaten national security and civil protection. Openness in society and individual freedom are fundamental values, constituting a source of strength – but also a vulnerability that can be exploited.

Examples of complex threats include influence through fake news and disinformation on social media, cyberattacks, strategic acquisitions, migration as a policy instrument, espionage and sabotage. Public administration, critical infrastructure, military targets, the business sector and other societal functions are all potential targets for such threats. These policy instruments can be applied individually or in combination, thereby reinforcing one another.

Energy supply, communication networks and other critical societal functions form the backbone of Europe’s safety and well-being. In recent times, several incidents have shown how vulnerable such infrastructure can be to complex threats in the form of physical attacks, sabotage, cyberattacks and other forms of influence. Sabotage of pipelines and energy facilities can have far-reaching regional consequences, both economically and socially. At the same time, communication networks are increasingly digitised and connected to global systems, rendering them particularly vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. The disruption of critical infrastructure can affect everything from economic value chains to ordinary citizens’ access to electricity, transport, health services and channels of communication. Physical attacks and sabotage can also threaten a clean, healthy and sustainable environment with well-functioning ecosystems. To strengthen European emergency preparedness and resilience, it is therefore crucial to focus on preventive measures, rapid crisis response and effective international co-operation.

Illegitimate influence operations often unfold covertly and at a low intensity over time, making them difficult to detect and defend against. The use of such illegal means is likely to increase. States or non-state actors will increasingly seek to influence other states or decision-makers.

Using digital tools and artificial intelligence, misinformation and disinformation are increasingly being spread by both state and non-state actors, including violent extremists and terrorist groups, with political, ideological, commercial or other motives. Disinformation and influence campaigns undermine the public’s trust in democratic processes and institutions, have a polarising effect, and fuel intolerance and hatred.

At the same time, search engines and social media are using opaque algorithms and artificial intelligence to control what news and other content is searchable, visible and available. What is made available is determined by users’ personal preferences and what drives engagement and revenue for the companies that own the platforms. This creates self-reinforcing filter bubbles. For some individuals, such as those experiencing social exclusion, this can hinder their exposure to other perspectives. An open exchange of information and opinions is necessary in a democracy.

Globalisation and digitalisation have resulted in the increased dominance of multinational corporations within the world economy. This emergence of large, dominant companies poses democratic challenges: Considerable economic power can enable companies to influence policy formulation and seek special treatment. This may be detrimental to economic efficiency, while weakening the legitimacy of economic policy.

2.2 Democracy under pressure

Weakening of democratic institutions

In recent years, several European countries have experienced a gradual erosion of democratic norms and institutions. This is reflected in the weakened distribution of power, reduced judicial independence and shrinking civic space. In many cases, these processes are initiated by democratically elected leaders. While accusations of abuse of power and personal enrichment were previously directed primarily at leaders outside Europe, they are now increasingly being made against European leaders as well.

Changes in legislation and practice are leading to the marginalisation of critical voices, while state authorities consolidate their influence. The aim is often to remove judicial and parliamentary control mechanisms, and to prevent political opposition from winning future elections. Millions of people are affected, with consequences for both populous countries and small states. Taken together, these developments threaten fundamental democratic values such as transparency, the rule of law and respect for human rights. When such authoritarian tendencies emerge in countries previously considered to have strong democratic traditions, it undermines the stability and trust on which European co-operation is based.

Since the 2000s, Russia has developed in an increasingly authoritarian direction. Today, the country is characterised by a deeply authoritarian political system with totalitarian features. Internal repression and external aggression are part of a mutually reinforcing dynamic. This is manifested in the militarisation of society, extending down to elementary school age. This negative trend is ongoing and is reshaping the country in the long term. The vision of influencing developments in Russia in a different direction through integration into the fabric of European organisations has failed and is no longer a realistic prospect.

Even in countries where democratic backsliding is evident, we see individuals and organisations continuing the struggle for freedom and justice. A 2024 report from the renowned international democracy index, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), titled Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot, highlights that several countries experiencing severe democratic decline have made a ‘democratic turnaround,’ returning to previous levels of democratic quality (‘U-turn’ countries). At the same time, there are countries that have yet to recover from such a decline.

Election manipulation and digital influence

In 2024, 74 national elections were held globally, with 1.6 billion registered voters and a voter turnout of around 61 per cent. Technological developments have a major impact on the conduct of elections. The use of digital technology in the conduct of elections has contributed to greater inclusion and increased accountability. At the same time, new technology has given authoritarian regimes new and effective tools for surveillance, censorship and repression of their own citizens. Digital technology and AI-generated content make disinformation cheap and effective, heightening the risk of manipulation of elections and political processes. This has led to deep polarisation and accusations of foreign influence in several European and Central Asian countries.

Local and regional democracy

Local democracy is often the first point of contact between citizens and the authorities, and thus crucial for building trust and legitimising public decisions. At the same time, local democracy is vulnerable because it often lacks resources, expertise, and independence, rendering it particularly susceptible to corruption, pressure from national authorities, disinformation and polarisation.

Anti-corruption

Many undemocratic leaders of our time have risen to power precisely through the use of corruption. The combination of political corruption and the monopolisation of power creates an environment in which those who wield authority are seldom held accountable for violations of democratic rules or human rights. Thus, corruption serves as a gateway for undemocratic forces and enables the strengthening of authoritarian models of governance without significant resistance from societal institutions. When corruption erodes democracy, there is a risk of backsliding, both in emerging democracies and in established rule of law-based societies.

2.3 Rule of law

The courts

In many countries, judicial independence is weak. There are many causes behind the challenges to the rule of law. There may be a lack of capacity, expertise or financial resources. Furthermore, inadequate legislation, ineffective administration, a lack of reform, and political or economic pressure are increasingly significant challenges. In some cases, the political or economic pressure is so intense that the judiciary is perceived as being controlled by political or economic elites. The risk is that the courts are used as a means of suppressing the opposition, independent media and human rights defenders.

Organised crime

As a result of increased globalisation and digitalisation, there has been a significant rise in transnational crime. According to Europol, the threat posed by organised crime in Europe has never been higher. According to the Norwegian National Criminal Investigation Service (Kripos), this also applies to Norway.

Several highly profit-driven criminal networks are operating in Europe, many of which are involved in the sale, distribution and importation of drugs. Revenue from illegal drug trafficking/activity is one of their primary sources of income. This enables criminal actors to invest large sums in property, business activities, and the like, thereby becoming part of the formal economy.

At the same time as the formal economy is under pressure, criminal networks are threatening individuals and authorities through corruption and various forms of violence and extortion. This ultimately poses a threat to the rule of law, democracy and public safety.

2.4 Human rights

Freedom of speech and independent media

Freedom of expression is being curtailed in many countries. Political bias in the media is on the rise, and journalists are subjected to threats, harassment and surveillance. Digital technology is being used for censorship, influence campaigns and various forms of online violence, targeting human rights defenders, artists, minorities and women, among others. Underreporting and widespread impunity for such abuse has a chilling effect on both those affected and others, discouraging participation in the public discourse. This represents a significant threat to freedom of expression.

Women journalists and media workers are particularly vulnerable to gender discrimination, sexual harassment and other abuses. This poses a threat to gender equality in the media and in society at large. When perpetrators are not held accountable, this fosters a permissive environment for abuses and increases the likelihood of their recurrence. Widespread impunity also leads to self-censorship and limits freedom of expression in society.

Journalists who uncover abuse of power, corruption and other improper conduct are particularly vulnerable. Dangerous rhetoric targeting journalists and the press, including from political leaders, fuels intolerance, harassment, and violence.

In several countries, political leaders have introduced restrictions that curtail press freedom and contribute to the concentration of media power. In authoritarian regimes, the combination of dangerous rhetoric and stricter laws curtail the press’s role as society’s watchdog. New media habits and global competition are weakening the revenue base for traditional media, putting media pluralism and diversity under pressure.

Civic space

In several European states, the room for manoeuvre of civil society and democratic opposition is being restricted. Several countries use restrictive legislation to hinder the registration of non-governmental organisations, often under the guise of anti-terrorism laws or other security legislation. Civil society is subject to limitations, undue reporting obligations and conditions and restrictions related to foreign funding.

Several recognised human rights organisations report a trend in Europe whereby freedom of assembly is increasingly being undermined and peaceful protests suppressed. Democracy activists, human rights defenders, trade union representatives, editors, journalists and bloggers are subjected to harassment, arbitrary detention and summary proceedings.

Gender-based violence, discrimination and hate speech

Vulnerable minorities and other groups in society are subjected to discrimination. Women and girls often have poorer legal protection and physical safety, health and education than men. Traditional values and religious dogma are increasingly being invoked as arguments to restrict individual freedoms, particularly in relation to sexual and reproductive rights and the rights of LGBTQ people. Similarly, discrimination against various minorities continues to be prevalent, occasionally justified on national security grounds.

Gender-based violence and harassment is a widespread problem and represents a serious structural threat to gender equality and security under the law for women, girls and trans persons. Domestic violence is a serious societal problem throughout Europe. Both men and women are subjected to this form of violence. At the same time, research shows that women are far more likely than men to experience domestic violence, particularly aggravated violence and intimate partner homicide. Norway is bound by the international legal obligations set forth in the Council of Europe Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence against Women and Domestic Violence (Istanbul Convention), which requires, among other things, that States Parties allocate adequate financial and human resources for the prevention and combatting of violence against women and domestic violence.

The prevalence of hate speech, disinformation and propaganda online can deepen polarisation in society and undermine trust in democratic institutions and values. Online search engines and social media control what speech, news and information are available and visible to users. This can contribute to curbing public discourse and raises issues related to the manipulation of public opinion.

Pressure on organised labour

In recent years, there has been a retrogression in the protection of workers’ rights and trade-union related rights in several countries. When democracies are under pressure, workers’ right to freedom of association and the right to form trade unions may also be at risk. Both sides of industry, particularly trade unions, play a crucial role in defending against authoritarian tendencies, both within individual countries and internationally. Therefore, it is important to support international organisations that work in favour of good working conditions and freedom of association in working life, and to strengthen organised labour in the face of increasing pressure and challenges.

Climate, nature and pollution

The Norwegian National Security Authority recognises climate change as a significant security threat. The climate, nature and pollution crises are creating challenges for democracy, human rights, security and the rule of law – all of which are crucial to finding effective and fair solutions to the crises, ensuring broad support, and facilitating proper follow-up.

More frequent and prolonged extreme weather events – such as torrential rains, droughts and wildfires – can threaten life, health and food security, destroy critical infrastructure, cause displacement and exacerbate underlying causes of conflict.

Humanity depends on a diverse range of well-functioning ecosystems that provide clean water, clean air, and stable access to food, contribute to emissions reductions and climate change mitigation, while also remaining an essential condition for continued development and value creation in society.

The consequences of pollution, climate change and loss of nature are interconnected and mutually reinforcing. For example, pollution can contribute to ocean acidification, depletion of the ozone layer, and impair the Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight. Climate change can impact the release and spread of environmental contaminants, while reductions in air pollution can also contribute to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Globally, pollution causes serious illness and death, poor living conditions and ecosystem destruction.

A stable climate, well-functioning ecosystems and a clean environment are necessary to be able to enjoy human rights such as the right to life, health and the right of indigenous peoples to practise their cultural traditions and customs. At the same time, measures to achieve these objectives can affect rights such as property rights, non-discrimination and the needs of various groups.

Therefore, societal stability and security at the national, regional and global levels hinge on solving the climate, nature and pollution crises in an effective, feasible and just manner. Procedural human rights such as freedom of expression and association, including the right to information and participation, as well as the right to a fair trial, are crucial to ensure legitimacy and respect for various rights when implementing necessary measures.

Environmental defenders are among the human rights defenders most vulnerable to murder, harassment and other forms of persecution. This is also the case in Europe.