Opening speech by the Prime Minister at the Oslo Security Conference

The speech as delivered (transcribed)

Good morning – to all of you,

Now, this is the second time in a week that I am here in a filled University Hall, and I would actually begin with that – because last Tuesday, there was also a packed hall here listening to Professor Timothy D. Snyder, giving a lecture on freedom. He is the author of numerous books about the 1930s in Europe, and about the rise of fascism – an epic book on tyranny and what we can do to avoid it – not only politically as politicians but also as individuals, down to the daily lives we live – and now he has written a very interesting piece on liberty, and he gave a lecture on this.

Freedom

I wanted to start there because this is why we are here, basically, to defend freedom. That was his theme, On Freedom. – I recommend the book and I recommend his lecture which I think was streamed on Tankesmien Agenda's homepage.

Yes, Kate (Hansen Bundt), there is a world of uncertainty, but what is certain is that your Norwegian Atlantic Committee (DNAK) holds seminars and now has even moved into the great hall of the University of Oslo. I appreciate that. I think it is important that we have a mainstay of these conferences, taking the temperature, so to say, on what is around Norway.

And I think the Atlantic perspective is ringing true every time because when we address security issues from a Norwegian perspective, we always come back to the fact that geography has such a great meaning. – And for Norway, it will always be Euro-Atlantic or Atlantic-European in different versions. So, I appreciate that.

And the 60th anniversary is a good sign of endurance! I was five years at that time, in 1965. I didn't attend the conferences back then. But truly, we were in the midst of the Cold War, the real Cold War, which – if we look at it from today's perspective – was a remarkable area of stability. – One could predict where the main players were. It was not undangerous. It was a dangerous world, but it was a more predictable one than today.

The U.S. was in the midst of becoming more and more divided over Vietnam, having bearings on US’ policies into the 1970s and beyond. And we were perhaps at the first steps of emerging European integration in the mid-60s, leading forward. It was an interesting time. Einar Gerhardsen was Prime Minister of Norway, but Per Borten took over at the end of the year, but that's not the theme. Norwegians will understand that joke.

I will not spend much time on labeling the times. There's a lot of work going on: What kind of times are we living in now? This is probably beyond the Cold War; we are after the Cold War; are we in a pre-war or post-war era?

It doesn't make us a lot wiser to use those words. I think that unpredictable and more dangerous are the signs. And it is not a kind of a statistic sign saying that it is bound to be even more so – because I think that we – based on freedom, based on the strength of democracies, based on our will to stand up for what really matters – we can stand up to this.

Disinformation

I found it interesting that the World Economic Forum this year is polling among leading economies and industries: What are the main themes from a security perspective? – And in those tables over the last years, the main focus has been on the effects of climate change, the changing weather, which is also changing the foundations on how economies work. I think that's still worthwhile recalling.

But today's prime global risk from WEF is misinformation. And this is, as you know, based on polling of what leading economic actors see when they observe the world. Let us bring that also along when we now look ahead.

And of course, speaking now, I am focusing – as a Norwegian Prime Minister – on how the implications of the war in Ukraine are extremely important for determining our outlook. It is happening at the other extreme of Europe – in the south. But the mere fact that our neighbor is engaged in a full-scale war, bordering on beyond one thousand days, has large and lasting implications for the way we plan our defense, for the way we plan our resilience, for the way we develop our alliances, for the way we have to prioritize our resources – financial, energy, human, and beyond.

Prime Minister Tusk in Oslo

Now, I wanted to share with you a few ‘snapshots’ from the last two or three weeks, in my outlook to you. And when I had put them on paper, I thought, you know, this is pretty well summarizing what is Norway's outlook in this unpredictable world.

First observation:

The current president of the European Union, or the lead country of the European Union – Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk – he went to Strasbourg to present his program, and then his first visit outside EU was to Oslo. He came for an afternoon to Oslo. It was an afternoon well worth – because we were addressing the geo-strategic situation in the north. And I believe that among countries in Europe, Poland is probably the country that has come closest in our bilateral relationships over the last 20-30 years – including also the Baltic states and other states; I think Poland is in a special category.

And the fact that Prime Minister Tusk comes here is an illustration of that. We provide now 40 percent of Poland's gas in a dedicated pipeline. It took time to build the pipeline, but it is there. And we experience that Poland is now also looking north, also for its defense.

Then, in November, we had a gathering of Baltic Prime Ministers, the Nordic Prime Ministers, and the Prime Minister of Poland, in Sweden, to address common security challenges in the north. – Ukraine, obviously, is on the agenda, European security, and the energy partnership, binding us together, and how to deal with hybrid challenges. – Because that, I think, is on top of policy decision-makers in our countries today. It is obviously Article 5 reflections. But the challenge to policy-makers now is the in-betweens. – When are we challenged, and what does the challenge mean?

And the best way to get along that road, be better at understanding hybrid threats and real challenges, being better at performing the scale of attribution; when are we in a position to attribute when there are hybrid skills? The best way to move forward on that has to do it with our closest allies.

So, that was one event in the end of January.

The Nordic Prime Ministers in Copenhagen

The second one was last Sunday in Copenhagen, when we gathered, four Nordic Prime Ministers around the kitchen table of Prime Minister Fredriksen at her house, to be among the Nordics in a situation where one of us was really being challenged, namely Denmark.

And I found that as an expression of solidarity, an expression also of relevance, because we came together to discuss – what does it mean to provide stability in the Arctic? – And not addressing instability from familiar sources, being Russian, Chinese movements or developments, but this pretty unheard claim from the U.S. President. – Which again highlights that the Nordics are in a very new, special position, seen from a Norwegian point of view, because we are all in NATO.

And I was in government when we deepened the defense cooperation with Sweden and Finland, in 2007-8, which was really meaningful. The Nordic cooperation has been very effective. – But it cannot compare to the fact that when we work on inter-operability in NATO, we are part of the same regional plans, we will belong to the same command in Norfolk, we are planning and preparing through our Chiefs of Defense how we shall do all that.

And I think we all agree that rarely in our lifetime – Prime Minister Kristersson, President Stubb, Prime Minister Fredriksen and myself – has the Nordic dimension been more relevant than today.

Auschwitz – 80 Years

Next thing that happened was last Monday, when I gathered with 50 other Heads of Government in Auschwitz, to commemorate 80 years after the liberation of that camp.

It was an extremely moving session where there were no words spoken from any politician, because we were simply there to witness and observe and listen to the four remaining witnesses, describing what they had been through. I take that also as a remark linked to Timothy Snyder’s presentation on liberty and how to defend ourselves against tyranny. It was a sobering moment.

Arctic Frontiers in Tromsø

I went from Poland and Denmark back to Oslo and then to Tromsø, for the Arctic Frontiers conference, which is a result of 20 years of Norway’s High North policy, where we have defined the High North and the Arctic as our key priority within security. – Because this is where most things change in our local environment, up and till now, I would say.

I remember becoming Foreign Minister in 2005; I was trying to define where are things changing the most around us now – in the east, south, west? – But it was in the north; climate is changing, new resources are being discovered, and where is Russia going to land, in this transition?

So, Arctic Frontiers is a result of the efforts by the then Stoltenberg government and also of the Solberg government to prioritize the High North, institutionalize the cooperation, make progress on university cooperation and all kinds of cross-border cooperation in the North. – And also bringing the attention of the allies to the North, because at that time – remember – about the Arctic some people were saying that the Arctic is really an empty place, there are no legal rules applying, this is Terra Nullius from a legal point of view, some said.

It isn’t. The Law of the Sea applies, international law applies, coastal states have rights and obligations – pretty obvious, but you have to remind them and to find a strategy for that.

Now, this Arctic Frontiers conference, which is on research and cooperation between Arctic states, was bigger than ever; bigger attendance, more relevant. And we have been able to maintain the Arctic Council structure, without Russia participating politically, that would be impossible, but there is still work to be done on pollution, on climate, on transport, on search and rescue, and making sense of life up there.

The U.S., Europe, EU and the EEA Agreement

And then, of course, the other thing happening in the last couple of weeks, is the messages coming out the U.S. – now, Panama and Greenland are one thing, obviously it has to be understood over time – what this really means, so I will not jump to conclusions. I think it is wise to analyze this being sober. – But: The tariffs being implemented as we speak and the challenges they pose, the consequences for transatlantic cooperation and links. We are bound by values and economies, so this is of course critically important.

And that brings me to the last point – which is: What happened in the government in Norway last week? – It was a moment there where I had to make clear, as a Prime Minister, that Norway is committed to participating – and with obligations – in this fine network of European cooperation.

We have allies in NATO, we have strong bilateral relationships, we provide more than 30% of Europe’s gas, 40% of the UK’s gas, and we were also able to increase our gas export by about 10% when the war broke out in Ukraine. We want to be a strong partner in that partnership. – We have market integration through the Internal Market, which gives us rights and obligations. And there is no way we can balance all of this in our times without respecting and honoring our obligations.

So, for me it was really a question of either we do this or you’ll do this without me. And we do it, so we’ll continue to respect the EEA agreement, and the Government that you’ll see in short time will be fully committed to this; taking care of Norwegian interests – but also acknowledging that Norwegian interests are closely linked to Europe that can cope and we will cope with them.

Norway, Europe and the Euro-Atlantic Relations

So, where does all this bring us?

A few sum-ups: First of all, we will highlight what it means for Norway in terms of rights and obligations to belong to Europe.

We are not a member of the European Union, but we are linked through the European Economic Area and numerous agreements, ranging from research to defense and we will follow-up on those.

We have a military industry that will make a difference in this coming-together to mobilize to be relevant to deterrence and also in our support to Ukraine.

We do not choose our geography – it is a given – and I believe that geography is really determining security policy big time this year. So, for Norway, who has always been Euro-Atlantic, or Atlantic-Euro – you choose – and this is my message also to my friends in the U.S.: We have common interests in the North, critical security interests are at stake in the North, and we are both better off by being strong Allies in that.

But, let us not forget, 3-4% of our trade goes to the U.S. and we will stand up to defend those interests every day, but 65% goes to the EU and 20% goes to the UK. So, on everything linked to our regular trade – but also for the way we develop our economies, in green tech, climate solutions, new energy solutions, research, defense, security – it has a European connotation. – And not delivering on that would harm Norway’s interests. We can make major contributions on our way if we do it in the right way.

For example, today, the European Union defines carbon capture and storage (CCS), taking out CO2, storing it to limit emissions, as a key point in their strategy to cut emissions and reach the Paris Goals. It was not like that, five years ago, but today it is really so. And the first complete value chain of CCS is in Norway, so we want to reach our climate goals in a way that can also provide technological solutions to our allies. Now, we have climate, energy and industrial partnerships developed with the UK, France, Germany and emerging with Poland, and of course also with the European Union.

Then, we have our neighbors in the North, and here my message is the following: We will keep our objective of what we call “High North – Low Tension”. We will be predictable, long-term, but this means also being firm, from fisheries management, the way we plan our defense, to the way we exercise – basically and operational, not surprisingly – but being there. We welcome our allies as they sail along Norwegian ships and fly with Nordic planes and we will be there in our most strategic interest area. We like to say that we are the eyes and ears of NATO in the North and we will invest in that.

Resilience and Preparedness

Finally, we are developing, as you know, both defense in traditional terms and our resilience and preparedness. We have our Defense Plan which has been voted unanimously in the Parliament – by the way, I think there are few countries who have done that – a Defense Plan put from all sides for the next years agreed by all, which will demand large investments.

It will be costly, but it is pretty straight-forward how to do it, in a sense; you have to provide new ships, more people, new technology, and you have to update the plan every year because most technology changes. And we learn from examples from what happens at battle fields, such as in Ukraine.

The other part of it, which is the total preparedness and resilience part, does not cost that much, but it is more complicated, because it is ‘inside us’, you and me, so, when we tell Norwegians that you should look after your provisions of some extra water and some extra food – should there be critical situations, ranging from extreme weather or security of whatever, we need to see people thinking that – yes, I should do that. And we need to see people who run their businesses, run their shops, that they think about that as well; what does that mean for me, how should I be prepared. And we need to get municipalities to bring together businesses, civil sector, Red Cross and all the rest of it – if the worst comes to us; what do we do, how do we get together and how do we exercise. We are on our way doing that.

National Security Strategy

Finally, in summing up our security concerns in all of those mentioned dimensions, we are, for the first time, preparing a Norwegian National Security Strategy before Summer, which is not a document to be adopted in Parliament as such. Other countries are doing this and we should do so too.

And some of the themes will be: Defense capabilities – we have presented all that in our Defense Plan; it will require heavy investments, and resilience, as I mentioned. And we have the White Paper on Total Preparedness.

And on economic security – how does the world’s most open economy, namely Norway, probably the most digitalized country; how do we take care of our economic security in this context.

And on the High North and maritime security – we have to express what it means to have the world’s second longest coastline – I did not know that when I was doing advocacies for the High North as Foreign Minister, but now, with ChatGPT, I found out. – Who has the world’s longest coastline? Canada number one, we are number two.

And then, of course, top priority of our security policy will be our Euro-Atlantic dependence; our strong historic and bilateral relations with the U.S. This will be Norway’s challenge and opportunity, and our task ahead will be to make this balance.

I invite inputs to our Security Strategy and I invite you to make contributions in that sense.

So, finally summing up, I think we have to – when we live in unpredictable times – we have to come back to and focus on the essentials. There are some things we have to leave aside and we have to be clear on the essentials – which is about our Alliance, our links to our European partners and our Nordic neighbors. We know how to do that; and our responsibility and opportunity as a major energy provider to Europe – and energy does not stand still, dear friends – there is gas, but there is going to be hydrogen, there is going to be offshore wind, there is going to be low carbon solutions which will be very exciting for the industry and we have to be there.

And then, my final remark; we will see a deepening on cooperation in the High North of Europe, on the North of Europe; we have the Joint Expeditionary Force, very expansive title, but that is the UK, Netherlands, Baltics and Nordics, and I will host a meeting of Heads of Government from that circle in Norway later this Spring. And together with Allies like Poland and other European partners we will deepen our cooperation because geography matters.

So, you, Kate and DNAK, celebrate 60 years. I listened to a man who was to border one hundred years on Monday; that was a man who had survived Auschwitz, and he stood there, 99 years old, about to turn a hundred this year, and my father was also born in 1925; he would also have turned one hundred years. But he left when he was 92; and it comes back the stories they told, and I found in my office where I now live, the Prime Minister’s Residence; this little medal which was called the Participatory Medal from the Second World War, since he reached at the end of his youth, at the age of twenty, to participate in the final stages – so there is some remembrance here to be made.

I thank the Atlantic Committee for arranging this seminar, as you do this year as every year. Thank you for your attention.

 

To see the whole conference:

• Security, conference, oslo, 2025 | Den norske Atlanterhavskomité